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发表于 2018-9-4 04:08:00
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从这里开始把,上面被吞了。
Toward a not so stable 2012
Editor's note: 2011 has been, to say the least, an eventful year. So what will the global order in 2012 be like? And how can the world's problems be solved? A report, "Towards a Stable Global System", prepared by Institute of Modern International Relations, Tsinghua University, tries to answer the questions. Excerpts follow:
Perhaps 2011 can be best described as one of turmoil and chaos. With the global crisis flowing out of the financial sector into social and political spheres, social unrest first erupted in the Middle East and North Africa and then spread to developed countries like Spain, Greece, Israel and Britain. Even the United Sates could not escape the rising tide of social unrest, as reflected in the "Occupy Wall Street" movement.
The year 2012 is likely to be even more tumultuous than 2011. As the world's largest economy, the US has not been able to recover under the pressure of high deficiency, high unemployment and low growth, and is moving toward recession.
The situation is worse in Europe where the debt crisis has deepened. Being unable to solve their own problems and trapped in the debt crisis, some European Union member states are looking up to their rich neighbors and institutions to bail them out. But the latter have been unable to find a long-term solution to the problem, dimming hopes of overcoming the situation. For example, as the largest economy in eurozone, Germany could help the crisis-ridden EU states to recover, but it is not so eager to loosen its purse strings.
Political frictions between major powers have the potential to intensify further next year. Many major world powers such as the US, Russia and France face general elections in 2012, while Japan is likely to continue its practice of changing prime ministers. Next-generation leaders have already taken power in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), while China will also have a new leadership next year.
To garner more support, political leaders will focus on domestic rather than international affairs and their mutual visits to one another's countries will decline, which may not be helpful in resolving conflicts.
Furthermore, political leaders could adopt harsher foreign policies to please their electorates, as has been seen during past elections. For example, to win the 2012 election, US President Barack Obama may resort to stronger economic policies against China by intensifying the conflicts over East Asian security, currency exchange rate, trade imbalance and opening financial markets.
Also possible is a clash between the US and Russia over democracy, strategic stability and Middle East problems, and the DPRK and the Republic of Korea (ROK) could attack each other politically with a change in leadership. As for Japan, the government in trying to win domestic support could not only clash with China on historical questions, but also intensify territorial disputes with China, Russia and the ROK. And tensions could return to the Taiwan Straits if the Democratic Progressive Party wins the election in the island province.
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